The Syrian President's Ignominious Speech

As I was searching for words to express my outrage at the president's speech, I came across Hashashji's post that perfectly encapsulates the speech's message (below is my translation):

- ما رح يتغير شي…الاصلاح مبلش من عشر سنين بس عادة التغييرات بدها عشرين سنة لتظهر و يعم الرخاء…

- الحكومة كان مقرر تسريحها اساسا…يعني مو لانو حدا تظاهر…

- لن يتم التساهل مع اي تظاهرة او متظاهر…

- اما معي….او ضد سوريا

- انا سوريا و سوريا انا….

- انا ما فهمتكون و ما شكلي رح افهمكون…صحي شو بدكون؟

- الاعلام السوري هو المرجعية الاعلامية لا العقل و الكومن سينس او اليوتوب

- انو معتقلين سياسيين؟

- انا الامل

- شعب متلكون بيستاهل واحد متلي

مبروك علينا الوطن…

• I will not change anything... The reforms started ten years but the amendments will take another twenty years before they are applied and spread prosperity
• The government was slated to resign anyway... it was not because of the demonstrations
• There will be no compromise with any demonstration or demonstrator
• You are with me... or you are against Syria
• I am Syria and Syria is me...
• I do not understand you and it appears that I never will... what do you really want?
• Syria's government media is the primary reference, not critical thought or common sense or YouTube
• What political prisoners? 
• I am hope
• A people like you deserves someone like me

The speech was dripping with arrogance and hubris.  Even worse than the speech itself were the cheers of the sycophants in the parliament who, on cue, chanted their allegiance to the president.  How much longer do the Syrian people have to be subjected to such nauseating and humiliating spectacles. It was not the cabinet  of technocrats that should have resigned but rather this collection of useless ass-kissers.  The president's speech contained not a word of compassion or regret for those who died at the hands of his government's security forces and no recognition of any of the long list of legitimate demands put forth by the demonstrators. The statement that this was the work of conspirators intending to harm Syria, essentially delegitimizes every demonstration that started on March 15th and makes every demonstrator a traitor. The consequences for those who oppose his valiant effort to safeguard the patrimony didn't have to be spelled out; the Syrian people understood.  However, this is not Syria of 1982, 2000 or 2010, the people will not go gently into the night. Not only have they lost their fear of those in power, they have the moral backing of millions of other Arabs who have shed the albatross of fear from around their neck .

If the president thinks that his hardline will somehow extricate him from the present impasse, he is wrong.  He has undoubtedly lost significant popular support for his handling of the demonstrations. Many of the ever optimistic "give Bashar a chance" crowd buoyed by the promise of some grand announcement of reforms, will finally abandon him as well.  Bashar Assad could have made history today as a real reformer, regained his people's trust and secured Syria's stability and security.  Instead, he has chosen confrontation and suppression of dissent insuring Syria's progressive instability and insecurity.

I fear what is coming next; God help the people of Syria.

Syria: Sorting Rumors from Willful Disinformation

The absence of independent journalists covering the events in Syria has made it impossible to get a clear sense of what is going on the ground. The official Syrian media is a mouthpiece of the regime and routinely engages in decietful and outright false reporting.  The most recent example is the implausible story of the Egyptian-American Tweed with a cellphone, paraded as proof of a foreign (American-Saudi-Wahhabi-Israeli) plot to destroy Syria.  On the other hand, trying to piece together the view from the other side by watching blurry youtube videos of uncertain provenance or tweets of second and third hand information is equally troubling. The events in Lattakia, my hometown, is a case in point.  Who shot at the civilians? a. security forces, b. regime goons in civilian clothes? or c. "foreign" elements trying to sow sectarian discord as the government claims.  Judging from recent history, the Arab autocrat's playbook would  suggest that the answer is a and b. Yet, it is impossible to verify my impression.

This lack of credible information puts the Syrian public in a tough spot and given the sectarian sensitivities, makes them more susceptible to sectarian fear mongering on the part of the regime.   Although there is little doubt that some opposing the regime have sectarian agendas, the vast majority do not.  And as to the uprising being the work of other meddling countries, there is absolutely no proof that I can see.  Neither the start of the trouble in Daraa nor any subsequent demonstration seemed to be other that hastily organized and largely leaderless protests. The organized opposition groups seemed to have little clout, not much of a popular base and seem believed like most everyone else that the Syrian people was not ready.

Having said that, the more the regime bungles the response to these demonstrations with more violence and deaths the more violent the response and the more protracted the conflict will be, allowing opportunistic groups with specific agendas come in and sow discord. 

Syrian Government's Proposed Reforms:Talk is Cheap

The Syrian regime had an epiphany after  massacring dozens of it own citizens in Daraa: keep it up and you may not be around too much longer. So, grudgingly, Bouthaina Shaaban is trotted out to declare sweeping reforms! maybe... or maybe they will just consider thinking about thinking about reforms. She admits that perhaps the people of Daraa have legitimate grievances but then goes on to immediately delegitimize them by saying that the demonstrations are the work of foreigners trying to destabilize Syria.  I guess no one in the regime watches the satellite channels.  Don't they realize that every other Arab autocrat in trouble has trotted out the same lame excuse and no one believed them?

There is a distinct smell of insincerity about the whole thing.  Why was it Shaaban who offered these concessions? Why not the president? Why are some of the offers of reform so ambivalent?  Is this just a stalling tactic to buy time and let the passions simmer down?  I remain skeptical.  This regime has had absolute power for  two generations, imposing its will on the people and tolerating absolutely no dissent.  This is their modus operandi, they know no other way of doing things. 

There has been enough bloodshed already. Talk is cheap; if the regime does not start implementing its declared reform agenda, it will loose the last shred of legitimacy it still has.   

Syrian Demonstrators in Cairo Attacked by Embassy Goons

Another example of the utter contempt for the citizens they are supposed to serve!

What the Chattering Class is Saying about the Demonstrations in Syria

A good place to gauge the mood of Syria's internet chattering  class is the comment sections of Joshua Landis' postings on Syria Comment. The chattering class is jittery, and for good reason.  Everyone was unanimous about the fear of a descent into violence and chaos, myself included.

This jitteriness seems to have also affected the reasoned judgement of many. It has also brought to the surface the biases and paranoia of the commentators, clearly colored by each person's sectarian and class affiliation.   Conspiracies abound.  A KSA-US-Beirut conspiracy to destabilize Syria is mentioned.  Beirut? with Lebanon politically dominated by Hizballah, does anyone seriously believe that the emasculated March 14th movement is capable of inciting rebellion in Syria?  Wahhabi plots are also raised as a cause of unrest by several commentators although no one has yet raised the possibility of hallucinogenic drugs being involved!  The Daraa demonstrations were attributed to a tribe in the region with Wahhabi tendencies not the arrest of fifteen schoolboys for scribbling anti government graffiti, inspired by the images they saw of the Egyptian demonstrations. It is ironic that some of the obsessions with Wahhabis sound very much like the stuff spouted regularly by fear-mongering right-wing American neocons.

Many of the comments seem to uncover sensitive sectarian and class divides.  Officially, we all get along in Syria, and officially, it is all because of the president's stewardship. Unofficially, we do, for the most part get along, certainly much better than our neighbors to the East and to the West; not because of the president's stewardship but because of the generally tolerant predisposition of Syrians. This does not mean that there are no sectarian sensitivities or concerns and airing such concerns without prejudice or demonization of other groups is a good thing in the long run . 

There certainly is at least a grain of truth in most of the fears expressed, but many are wildly exaggerated at the expense of de-legitimizing the real grievances of ordinary Syrian citizens.  What the demonstrators want here is what other demonstrators in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya and Bahrain are asking for. Most of the commentators, recognize the latter grievances and yet seem to want to hang on to the status quo because they cannot see a clear road to an orderly transition.  This is largely because there are no institutions independent of the president capable of assuring an orderly transition. This is not the fault of the Syrian people, it is the fault of a regime that has not, despite being in power for a decade, made the major reforms needed to allow for the evolution from a top-down, locked-down authoritarian government to a open, representative government.  Instead of giving KSA tacit approval for sending troops to Bahrain, the president should be talking to the Egyptians and Tunisians.  

Syria: The Genie is out of the Bottle?

As I reflect on the events in Syria today, I remember Bashar Assad's confident, if not smug, answers during the Wall Street Journal interview at the time of Mubarak's fall. He did not hide his pleasure at the fall of Mubarak and with him the Camp David accord.  He himself, however, was untouchable, he implied, because he listens to his people and backs the "resistance".  The various regime apologists later chimed in saying pretty much the thing: it will not happen in Syria.  Well, it has and  the brutal push back against the demonstrations in Yemen, Libya and Bahrain has not dampened the resolve of those seeking change.

Over the last three months, it has become perfectly clear for all to see that the autocratic rulers of the Arab world are all cut of the same cloth.  Whether they are American lackeys or chest thumping members of the "resistance", they view  their people with the same jaundiced eye and treat them with utter disdain.  The way they respond to demonstrations in the various countries might make you think that they are using the same playbook.  At the first sign of trouble, they bring out the riot police force, but also bring out the plain clothed goons to do the dirty work.   When people get hurt and killed, send the security forces to the hospitals to further intimidate the demonstrators and control the information coming out into the media. Of course, always blame outside agitators and infiltrators and ominously warn of chaos and disaster should they loose their grip on power.

The killing of demonstrators in Daraa today is a turning point for Syria.  If the regime retrenches and responds with more massive force to further demonstration -as I suspect it will, since it is the only way they know how to respond- I fear that Syria might descend onto a dangerous path.  What I would wish for  is a major public intervention on the part of the president to calm fears, the implementation of immediate reforms starting with lifting press and Internet censorship and the laying out of a serious and sincere plan for real reform.  Unfortunately, I am not hopeful anything that positive will ever occur.

In the end, the present regime, has no one but itself to blame.  In the decade since Bashar Assad has come to power, other than some economic reforms that have mostly benefited the rich; there has not been any  improvement in individual citizen's liberties and rights.  Had that been started a decade ago, the choices for Syria may not be as stark as they are now.