For the past several months the consensus was that unless a critical mass is reached in the number of protesters, the army crumbles or significant protests happen in Damascus or Aleppo, the regime will survive. Once again in the year of empowerment of the Arab people, the people have defied all predictions. There have been a significant number of army defectors but the army has not fallen apart and there have not been the massive protests either in Damascus or in Aleppo. And yet it has happened, the regime seems to be in disarray and suddenly coming apart at the seams.
It is the sheer persistence, tenacity and courage of the demonstrators that is the principle factor that has pushed the regime to the edge of the precipice. The people of Homs deserve much of the credit for heroically standing up to the regime's brutality. Also, contrary to the regime's propaganda, the silent majority were on the side of the demonstrators not on the side of the regime; it explains in part the perseverance of those who take to the street. This silent support also explains why the relatively small FSA (Free Syrian Army), was capable of mounting a daring attack against the feared Air Force mukhabarat headquarters outside Damascus. But the needle that seems to have broken the regime's back are the actions of the certifiably useless Arab League. Suddenly, the regime that fancies itself the bastion of Arabism, has been shunned by the organization that represents the vestiges of old-style pan-Arab unity.
It is the regime's depraved brutality that is the main cause of its undoing and this iss documented in horrific detail in thousands of online videos for all to see. It is hard to see how, at this point, anyone but the morally depraved or the completely deluded still support the regime. At a certain point, all such individuals become complicit in the violence and murder perpetrated against their fellow citizens. This violence is emblematic of a regime holding on to a sclerosed, defunct and bankrupt ideology; they are unwilling and incapable of responding in any other way. In this way, Bashar's Syria is more like Ghaddafi's Libya and unlike Egypt and Tunisia. Both of the latter had a flexible enough system, despite being autocracies, to manage a transition of power without destroying the state. This is a worrisome fact for Syria. Left to his own devices, Bashar is likely to fight to the very end taking down with him the whatever structure of the state is still standing. It looks like Syria's only way to a reasonably orderly transition is to hope for palace coup or to have the army, as an institution, turn against him.
It is the sheer persistence, tenacity and courage of the demonstrators that is the principle factor that has pushed the regime to the edge of the precipice. The people of Homs deserve much of the credit for heroically standing up to the regime's brutality. Also, contrary to the regime's propaganda, the silent majority were on the side of the demonstrators not on the side of the regime; it explains in part the perseverance of those who take to the street. This silent support also explains why the relatively small FSA (Free Syrian Army), was capable of mounting a daring attack against the feared Air Force mukhabarat headquarters outside Damascus. But the needle that seems to have broken the regime's back are the actions of the certifiably useless Arab League. Suddenly, the regime that fancies itself the bastion of Arabism, has been shunned by the organization that represents the vestiges of old-style pan-Arab unity.
It is the regime's depraved brutality that is the main cause of its undoing and this iss documented in horrific detail in thousands of online videos for all to see. It is hard to see how, at this point, anyone but the morally depraved or the completely deluded still support the regime. At a certain point, all such individuals become complicit in the violence and murder perpetrated against their fellow citizens. This violence is emblematic of a regime holding on to a sclerosed, defunct and bankrupt ideology; they are unwilling and incapable of responding in any other way. In this way, Bashar's Syria is more like Ghaddafi's Libya and unlike Egypt and Tunisia. Both of the latter had a flexible enough system, despite being autocracies, to manage a transition of power without destroying the state. This is a worrisome fact for Syria. Left to his own devices, Bashar is likely to fight to the very end taking down with him the whatever structure of the state is still standing. It looks like Syria's only way to a reasonably orderly transition is to hope for palace coup or to have the army, as an institution, turn against him.
1 comments:
Baffling
My brother’s father in law just returned to Australia after an extended visit to Damascus. I asked him about the Damascenes’ mood regarding current events in Syria. He replied: “people love Bashar, he is a reformer’. This from a man that suffered from the brutality of the Baath regime before escaping to Australia some 40 years ago.
Also spoke to my older brother who lives in Aleppo and runs a clothing factory. Asked him about the Aleppines feelings towards what is happening. ‘Bashar is not bad, it is these idiots that are trying to wreck the country’ his reply came back. This is from a holder of MS in Information Technology from the American University of Beirut. His wife’s 4 brothers have all disappeared in the 80’s presumed killed by the authorities.
Both left me speechless.
Sammy
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