Sunday, June 26, 2011
Thursday, June 23, 2011
The Lion's Speech
There is a lot I could have said about the lion's speech but nothing could have summed it up better and more succinctly than what I saw on bumper sticker while driving to work today.
"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."
Voltaire (1694 - 1778)
Saturday, June 11, 2011
A Man of Principle: Malek Jandali vs ADC
The ADC's explanation for its action just does not hold any water. They are an organization that strongly promotes the human and civil rights of Arab Americans. They cannot claim to be apolitical and feign neutrality when it comes to human rights abuses in the Middle East because they take a clear stance in on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. What they did with Jandali is hypocritical and outrageous.
I have been a card carrying ADC member for several years now but will reconsider my membership if the ADC does not change course. They can either limit their mission to civil rights issues in the US, or be an independent voice for human rights for all Arabs. To achieve the latter, they will have to assert their independence from Arab regimes.
As for Malek Jandali, I salute him as a man of principle and a Syrian patriot. In his gentle, civil way, he continues to advocate for the Syrian people at every chance that he gets.
Ministry of Disinformation: Reem Haddad Lives in an Alternative Universe
But I don't think she is delusional; she is lying and she knows it. It is the same with every Syrian government official I have seen being interviewed. As soon as they are asked a simple of question, they immediately become defensive, combative and then indignant. You don't need a polygraph, just watch their body language and their facial expression and the tremor in their voice; they are lying through their teeth.
Sunday, June 05, 2011
منحبك : Who are these People?
Who are these people with their well manicured looks, their matching white hats and flags and requisite Bashar posters as statesman, warrior and man for all seasons? Do they really believe that they represent the majority of Syrians and that the men women and children protesting peacefully for change are but the poor ignorant minority? Even if it was so, why are they so heartless? Has the blood of their compatriots spilled so savagely by men who utter Bashar's name next to God's in their chants not repulsed them?
It is an irony of ironies that the heir to the Arab Baath Socialist party has carefully built and indoctrinated this privileged class of Syrians as the buffer between him and the unwashed masses. This منحبك (we love you) class was built to reflect an air of modernity and sophistication that Bashar has sought to project over the last decade. Yet, clearly, this veneer of sophistication is thin and, as has become clear over the last twelve weeks, supported by a corrupt and repressive state infrastructure.
The منحبك crowd should be told that carrying posters of your leader as idol or big brother is so 20th century. They should also be told that if they want real sophistication, they should listen to their less privileged compatriots from the hinterland. Those compatriots understand, much more than they do, the importance of freedom and dignity. They understand that without those very basic tenets, you cannot built a thriving successful country where citizens enjoy equal rights and opportunities.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Daydreams and Nightmares
House Call: My yearly visit to one of my homebound patients.
Patient: Are you taking a vacation this summer?
Me: Yes
Patient: Where are you going?
Me: To Lebanon
Patient: Is that where you are from?
Me: My wife is from there, I am Syrian.
Home attendant: Where is that?
Me: In the Middle East (in my head: Aakh! If I had a penny for every time I heard that question I would be a millionaire!)
Patient: I would love to go there, but they hate Americans don’t they?
Me: No they don’t…So how is your back pain?
Driving back to the hospital I listen to Lina Chamamyan Ala moj el bahr. I am transported for a moment by her beautiful voice until ugly Youtube images from Lattakia, Banyas, Bayda and elsewhere rudely intrude into my daydream. My throat tightens, I reach down for the off button then hesitate. Screw them, the bastards will not spoil my daydream.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
The Moral Dissonance of the Syrian Regime Apologists
The Syrian regime is claiming victory in its battle with its own people or rather, as they would say, the battle against the insurrection by armed terrorist gangs. I hope they are wrong but I frankly don't know. They have managed to choke off almost completely the trickle of images escaping from Syria, arrested thousand of activists and continued their brutal crackdown. Does that mean that the protests have diminished and will stop? I doubt it.
If the fragmentary information over the past eight weeks has left many in doubt about the course of the events, there are certain things I have become certain of. The regime's ruling elite is brutal, incorrigible and unreformable and willing to take the country down with it rather than surrender or share power. I always thought that some opponents of the regime engaged in hyperbole when describing the regime as a mafia. But how else can you describe a regime led by a leader who inherited the presidency and that is rife with nepotism. Brother Maher controls the most powerful division in the army, a cousin is the wealthiest monopolist businessman in Syria and various lesser Assads control a freelance militia, the so-called Shabiha, used to kill and intimidate unruly citizens. In fact , the Corleones' behavior pales compared to the Assads.
The last eight weeks have also acutely heightened my distaste for those, who despite everything that has transpired, continue to provide cover for the president and his regime. After several hundred unarmed protesters are killed, many more injured and thousands of activists and ordinary citizens incarcerated and tortured, there is no room for moral hand-wringing. The regime has clearly shown what it is capable and willing to do to its own people. If the protests are suppressed, the apologists will say that it is because the president has many more supporters than detractors among the Syrian citizens, as if the blood of those who died was worth spilling if the protests represented only 20% of the Syrian people.
Surely the same regime apologists will think my moral arguments naive. They will tell me that I don't understand the complex nature of the Machiavellian politics of the Middle East and how events are interconnected by nefarious conspiracies. I am happy to be the naive one along with all the common people whose Arab Spring has debunked all the stupid assumptions and political theories. It turns out -surprise, surprise- Arabs are like everyone else and long first and foremost for dignity, respect and freedom. Until individuals in our part of the world are given those basic rights they will continue to be expandable pawns in power games played by a few and we will never be able to build stable, progressive societies that achieve the potential of their people.
The Syrian regime might temporarily put out the fires but the embers of dissent will continue to burn.
If the fragmentary information over the past eight weeks has left many in doubt about the course of the events, there are certain things I have become certain of. The regime's ruling elite is brutal, incorrigible and unreformable and willing to take the country down with it rather than surrender or share power. I always thought that some opponents of the regime engaged in hyperbole when describing the regime as a mafia. But how else can you describe a regime led by a leader who inherited the presidency and that is rife with nepotism. Brother Maher controls the most powerful division in the army, a cousin is the wealthiest monopolist businessman in Syria and various lesser Assads control a freelance militia, the so-called Shabiha, used to kill and intimidate unruly citizens. In fact , the Corleones' behavior pales compared to the Assads.
The last eight weeks have also acutely heightened my distaste for those, who despite everything that has transpired, continue to provide cover for the president and his regime. After several hundred unarmed protesters are killed, many more injured and thousands of activists and ordinary citizens incarcerated and tortured, there is no room for moral hand-wringing. The regime has clearly shown what it is capable and willing to do to its own people. If the protests are suppressed, the apologists will say that it is because the president has many more supporters than detractors among the Syrian citizens, as if the blood of those who died was worth spilling if the protests represented only 20% of the Syrian people.
Surely the same regime apologists will think my moral arguments naive. They will tell me that I don't understand the complex nature of the Machiavellian politics of the Middle East and how events are interconnected by nefarious conspiracies. I am happy to be the naive one along with all the common people whose Arab Spring has debunked all the stupid assumptions and political theories. It turns out -surprise, surprise- Arabs are like everyone else and long first and foremost for dignity, respect and freedom. Until individuals in our part of the world are given those basic rights they will continue to be expandable pawns in power games played by a few and we will never be able to build stable, progressive societies that achieve the potential of their people.
The Syrian regime might temporarily put out the fires but the embers of dissent will continue to burn.
Monday, May 02, 2011
How Many Syrian Demonstrators are Enough?
Since the beginning of the demonstrations in Syria, some, mostly regime sympathizers or apologists, have obsessed over the numbers of demonstrators. They were too few to make a difference, they said, a handful of disgruntled extremists from the countryside; everyone else loved the president. When the numbers went from dozens, to hundreds, to thousands and then to tens of thousands, these number crunchers then switched to estimating the number of protesters relative to the total population again trying to minimize their relevance.
This is a silly exercise at many levels. First, no one knows what the numbers are since the government-run media is a propaganda puppet of the regime that spews bold-faced lies and no independent journalists are allowed into Syria. Second, in a country that has been in a state of lockdown since 1963, a dozen people publicly demonstrating against the regime would have been front page news only two months ago. So, if some of the citizens have boldly tossed the yoke of fear off their necks, it is a safe bet that many are still too afraid to express their real views. This fear is reinforced by the regime and its security forces' -uniformed or not- penchant for shooting unarmed demonstrators and otherwise trying to extinguish any nascent demonstration with threats of violence, intimidation and arrests. Witnesses also describe how security forces surround mosques at prayer time letting people leave one a time to prevent the gathering of a crowd; this after the president declared that Syrians have the right to demonstrate peacefully.
In the end, however, the question as to whether the regime needs to change has nothing to do with the number of demonstrators but has all to do with the response of the regime to the demonstrations; and by that measure they have lost all legitimacy. Several hundred, unarmed, demonstrators have lost their lives; few would dispute that their deaths was at the hands of the security forces or the shabiha. That fact without any attempt on the part of the government to take responsibility for its act is reason enough for a change. No Syrian, myself included, wants to see the country descend into chaos. That the options are down to the status quo or chaos is the choice of the regime not the demonstrators. The power structure, built specifically to cement the power of a few, is rigid with no room for flexibility to adapt to change despite having a self-declared reformer at the helm for a decade. The emergency laws have been lifted in name only as hundreds of arbitrary arrest continue unabated. Is there any shred of evidence that this regime is willing or capable of evolving, of reforming itself into something other than the repressive police state it has been for last 48 years?
.
This is a silly exercise at many levels. First, no one knows what the numbers are since the government-run media is a propaganda puppet of the regime that spews bold-faced lies and no independent journalists are allowed into Syria. Second, in a country that has been in a state of lockdown since 1963, a dozen people publicly demonstrating against the regime would have been front page news only two months ago. So, if some of the citizens have boldly tossed the yoke of fear off their necks, it is a safe bet that many are still too afraid to express their real views. This fear is reinforced by the regime and its security forces' -uniformed or not- penchant for shooting unarmed demonstrators and otherwise trying to extinguish any nascent demonstration with threats of violence, intimidation and arrests. Witnesses also describe how security forces surround mosques at prayer time letting people leave one a time to prevent the gathering of a crowd; this after the president declared that Syrians have the right to demonstrate peacefully.
In the end, however, the question as to whether the regime needs to change has nothing to do with the number of demonstrators but has all to do with the response of the regime to the demonstrations; and by that measure they have lost all legitimacy. Several hundred, unarmed, demonstrators have lost their lives; few would dispute that their deaths was at the hands of the security forces or the shabiha. That fact without any attempt on the part of the government to take responsibility for its act is reason enough for a change. No Syrian, myself included, wants to see the country descend into chaos. That the options are down to the status quo or chaos is the choice of the regime not the demonstrators. The power structure, built specifically to cement the power of a few, is rigid with no room for flexibility to adapt to change despite having a self-declared reformer at the helm for a decade. The emergency laws have been lifted in name only as hundreds of arbitrary arrest continue unabated. Is there any shred of evidence that this regime is willing or capable of evolving, of reforming itself into something other than the repressive police state it has been for last 48 years?
.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Playing the Sectarian Card in Syria
One of the most corrosive and disingenuous claims of the Syrian regime is that the protesters are crypto-salafists bent on instigating sectarian strife; this coming from a regime that is established and maintained on narrow sectarian loyalties. Of course the implicit message to the Syrian people, as well as to Westerners (see the recent Vogue interview of the Assads), is that peaceful coexistence among the sects in Syria is made possible only by the grace of the Assads and was it not for them, Syria would be deep into a sectarian civil war. Interestingly, the argument the regime makes is identical to what Westerner commentators glibly make when talking about our region: loyalties sectarian and tribal and they only get along when coexistence is enforced.
Sectarian chauvinism certainly exists and is present in all sects and is not limited to wild-eyed salafists. However, relations among the sects in Syria have been generally good, a situation that antedates the Assads. Moreover, I strongly believe that the primacy of sectarian loyalties is diminishing with time. At independence, it was difficult for people brought together within boundaries drawn by colonial powers to feel like citizens of a nation. Loyalties were first and foremost regional, religious or tribal. However, after sixty years of common history and common shared memory, even the citizens of the most artificially drawn up nation develop a sense of a shared identity. That is why the current generation of young Arabs identify themselves first as citizens of their respective countries. We saw that feeling clearly manifested in the demonstrations in Egypt and we see it now among the young Syrian protesters. Even in the country where sectarianism is institutionalized, Lebanon, young protesters have been out in the streets demanding an end to the sectarian sate.
The Syrian regime is currently pandering to the fears of minority communities. They in turn, are understandably nervous. However, the best way to insure the rights of minorities is to have those rights protected by a representative and responsive government and not dependent on the benevolence of an authoritarian ruler.
Sectarian chauvinism certainly exists and is present in all sects and is not limited to wild-eyed salafists. However, relations among the sects in Syria have been generally good, a situation that antedates the Assads. Moreover, I strongly believe that the primacy of sectarian loyalties is diminishing with time. At independence, it was difficult for people brought together within boundaries drawn by colonial powers to feel like citizens of a nation. Loyalties were first and foremost regional, religious or tribal. However, after sixty years of common history and common shared memory, even the citizens of the most artificially drawn up nation develop a sense of a shared identity. That is why the current generation of young Arabs identify themselves first as citizens of their respective countries. We saw that feeling clearly manifested in the demonstrations in Egypt and we see it now among the young Syrian protesters. Even in the country where sectarianism is institutionalized, Lebanon, young protesters have been out in the streets demanding an end to the sectarian sate.
The Syrian regime is currently pandering to the fears of minority communities. They in turn, are understandably nervous. However, the best way to insure the rights of minorities is to have those rights protected by a representative and responsive government and not dependent on the benevolence of an authoritarian ruler.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Youtube Video Worth a Million Words
I must have watched dozens of these shaky pixilated Youtube protest videos taken by Syrian citizens. It is not that I have macabre voyeuristic urges, I just need to see, sitting in safety thousands of miles away, what the people of Syria are enduring. Many of these video clips were too difficult to watch but none have affected me as much as that of the recent demonstration in Izraa described above. I am not sure why, was it the haunting look of the dying young man who could have been my son's age or the sheer horror I heard in the voices of the survivors? No one, and I mean no one, protesting peacefully deserves such a fate. If for most readers, this last statement is self-evident, it is not apparently for some defenders of the regime who will come up with any number of reasons as to why these people deserve such treatment.
Of course, as the various news websites stipulate, the authenticity of these videos clips cannot be verified. However, it is the sheer number of these videos, their rawness, their redundancy and their consistency in telling the same horrific story across every demonstration in multiple towns that make them totally believable. What you clearly see is that the protesters consist of mostly young to middle-aged men, unarmed, representing a cross section of Syrian society, demonstrating peacefully. Has there been vandalism and some violence on the part of the protesters? Of course there has been. But again, to the regime apologists I say that neither tearing up posters of the president nor toppling statues constitute capital offenses in any self-respecting country. What is astounding, is that after enduring over five weeks of unprovoked mayhem at the hands of security forces, that the protesters have not resorted to an open, violent insurrection.
If an image is worth a thousand words, videos clips are worth a million and this massive archive of moving images, as imperfect as it is, is a damning indictment of the Syrian regime.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Malek Jandali: Watani Ana مالك جندلي، وطني أنا
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Watani Ana (I am my Homeland) Composed & Arranged by Malek Jandali - Piano - Vocals: Salma Habib & Ali Waad Cello: Martin Gueorguiev Directed by: Jibril Haynes
Watani Ana (I am my Homeland) Composed & Arranged by Malek Jandali - Piano - Vocals: Salma Habib & Ali Waad Cello: Martin Gueorguiev Directed by: Jibril Haynes
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Syria: I Hoped for an Evolution but Got a Revolution
Like many Syrians I had hoped for a transformation in Syria over the last decade with the ascendancy of Bashar to the presidency. There was not much logic behind my hope except for a Syrian's natural tendency to want to avoid conflict and wish the best for his beloved country. This wishful thinking eroded gradually over the years, as other than applying a shiny veneer of wealth to the privileged -well connected- few in Damascus, the president achieved no real reform. However, as late as a couple of weeks ago, even after the outrage in Daraa, I was still, against all odds, willing to give Bashar the chance to do the right thing. He failed miserably.
The harsh reality, as clearly demonstrated in the last month, is that the Syrian regime of 2011 is no different than the Syrian Regime of 1990 or 1980. Worse than the brute force with which the protests were put down, is the way some in the security forces (or is it the Shabiha) sadistically handle anyone taken into custody. The most recent appalling example can be seen on Youtube video of armed security officers in the village of Baida, brutalizing the men they had taken into custody. The behavior is meant to sow fear, dehumanize and debase the citizens. It is as if the regime is in an abusive relationship with its own people. And as in abusive relationships, the abuser will intermittently feign concern and sympathy between bouts of abuse; hence the meeting of the president with delegates from Banyas to try "reduce tension".
The regime's clumsy propaganda has worked on no one but their most die hard supporters and many disillusioned apologists have given up on them all together. If the regime of 2011 is no different than that of 1980, the Syrian citizens of 2011 are. The people have lost their fear of the regime and brute force will not work, as it did in the past, to quash the legitimate aspirations of the people. The sooner the regime realizes that the better it is for Syria. Unfortunately, a system based on fear and intimidation is not equipped with the flexibility to adapt to new realities.
I fear that we are looking at many more months of strife and bloodshed.
The harsh reality, as clearly demonstrated in the last month, is that the Syrian regime of 2011 is no different than the Syrian Regime of 1990 or 1980. Worse than the brute force with which the protests were put down, is the way some in the security forces (or is it the Shabiha) sadistically handle anyone taken into custody. The most recent appalling example can be seen on Youtube video of armed security officers in the village of Baida, brutalizing the men they had taken into custody. The behavior is meant to sow fear, dehumanize and debase the citizens. It is as if the regime is in an abusive relationship with its own people. And as in abusive relationships, the abuser will intermittently feign concern and sympathy between bouts of abuse; hence the meeting of the president with delegates from Banyas to try "reduce tension".
The regime's clumsy propaganda has worked on no one but their most die hard supporters and many disillusioned apologists have given up on them all together. If the regime of 2011 is no different than that of 1980, the Syrian citizens of 2011 are. The people have lost their fear of the regime and brute force will not work, as it did in the past, to quash the legitimate aspirations of the people. The sooner the regime realizes that the better it is for Syria. Unfortunately, a system based on fear and intimidation is not equipped with the flexibility to adapt to new realities.
I fear that we are looking at many more months of strife and bloodshed.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
The Syrian President's Ignominious Speech
As I was searching for words to express my outrage at the president's speech, I came across Hashashji's post that perfectly encapsulates the speech's message (below is my translation):
The speech was dripping with arrogance and hubris. Even worse than the speech itself were the cheers of the sycophants in the parliament who, on cue, chanted their allegiance to the president. How much longer do the Syrian people have to be subjected to such nauseating and humiliating spectacles. It was not the cabinet of technocrats that should have resigned but rather this collection of useless ass-kissers. The president's speech contained not a word of compassion or regret for those who died at the hands of his government's security forces and no recognition of any of the long list of legitimate demands put forth by the demonstrators. The statement that this was the work of conspirators intending to harm Syria, essentially delegitimizes every demonstration that started on March 15th and makes every demonstrator a traitor. The consequences for those who oppose his valiant effort to safeguard the patrimony didn't have to be spelled out; the Syrian people understood. However, this is not Syria of 1982, 2000 or 2010, the people will not go gently into the night. Not only have they lost their fear of those in power, they have the moral backing of millions of other Arabs who have shed the albatross of fear from around their neck .
If the president thinks that his hardline will somehow extricate him from the present impasse, he is wrong. He has undoubtedly lost significant popular support for his handling of the demonstrations. Many of the ever optimistic "give Bashar a chance" crowd buoyed by the promise of some grand announcement of reforms, will finally abandon him as well. Bashar Assad could have made history today as a real reformer, regained his people's trust and secured Syria's stability and security. Instead, he has chosen confrontation and suppression of dissent insuring Syria's progressive instability and insecurity.
I fear what is coming next; God help the people of Syria.
- ما رح يتغير شي…الاصلاح مبلش من عشر سنين بس عادة التغييرات بدها عشرين سنة لتظهر و يعم الرخاء…
- الحكومة كان مقرر تسريحها اساسا…يعني مو لانو حدا تظاهر…
- لن يتم التساهل مع اي تظاهرة او متظاهر…
- اما معي….او ضد سوريا
- انا سوريا و سوريا انا….
- انا ما فهمتكون و ما شكلي رح افهمكون…صحي شو بدكون؟
- الاعلام السوري هو المرجعية الاعلامية لا العقل و الكومن سينس او اليوتوب
- انو معتقلين سياسيين؟
- انا الامل
- شعب متلكون بيستاهل واحد متلي
مبروك علينا الوطن…
- I will not change anything... The reforms started ten years but the amendments will take another twenty years before they are applied and spread prosperity
- The government was slated to resign anyway... it was not because of the demonstrations
- There will be no compromise with any demonstration or demonstrator
- You are with me... or you are against Syria
- I am Syria and Syria is me...
- I do not understand you and it appears that I never will... what do you really want?
- Syria's government media is the primary reference, not critical thought or common sense or YouTube
- What political prisoners?
- I am hope
- A people like you deserves someone like me
The speech was dripping with arrogance and hubris. Even worse than the speech itself were the cheers of the sycophants in the parliament who, on cue, chanted their allegiance to the president. How much longer do the Syrian people have to be subjected to such nauseating and humiliating spectacles. It was not the cabinet of technocrats that should have resigned but rather this collection of useless ass-kissers. The president's speech contained not a word of compassion or regret for those who died at the hands of his government's security forces and no recognition of any of the long list of legitimate demands put forth by the demonstrators. The statement that this was the work of conspirators intending to harm Syria, essentially delegitimizes every demonstration that started on March 15th and makes every demonstrator a traitor. The consequences for those who oppose his valiant effort to safeguard the patrimony didn't have to be spelled out; the Syrian people understood. However, this is not Syria of 1982, 2000 or 2010, the people will not go gently into the night. Not only have they lost their fear of those in power, they have the moral backing of millions of other Arabs who have shed the albatross of fear from around their neck .
If the president thinks that his hardline will somehow extricate him from the present impasse, he is wrong. He has undoubtedly lost significant popular support for his handling of the demonstrations. Many of the ever optimistic "give Bashar a chance" crowd buoyed by the promise of some grand announcement of reforms, will finally abandon him as well. Bashar Assad could have made history today as a real reformer, regained his people's trust and secured Syria's stability and security. Instead, he has chosen confrontation and suppression of dissent insuring Syria's progressive instability and insecurity.
I fear what is coming next; God help the people of Syria.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Syria: Sorting Rumors from Willful Disinformation
The absence of independent journalists covering the events in Syria has made it impossible to get a clear sense of what is going on the ground. The official Syrian media is a mouthpiece of the regime and routinely engages in decietful and outright false reporting. The most recent example is the implausible story of the Egyptian-American Tweed with a cellphone, paraded as proof of a foreign (American-Saudi-Wahhabi-Israeli) plot to destroy Syria. On the other hand, trying to piece together the view from the other side by watching blurry youtube videos of uncertain provenance or tweets of second and third hand information is equally troubling. The events in Lattakia, my hometown, is a case in point. Who shot at the civilians? a. security forces, b. regime goons in civilian clothes? or c. "foreign" elements trying to sow sectarian discord as the government claims. Judging from recent history, the Arab autocrat's playbook would suggest that the answer is a and b. Yet, it is impossible to verify my impression.
This lack of credible information puts the Syrian public in a tough spot and given the sectarian sensitivities, makes them more susceptible to sectarian fear mongering on the part of the regime. Although there is little doubt that some opposing the regime have sectarian agendas, the vast majority do not. And as to the uprising being the work of other meddling countries, there is absolutely no proof that I can see. Neither the start of the trouble in Daraa nor any subsequent demonstration seemed to be other that hastily organized and largely leaderless protests. The organized opposition groups seemed to have little clout, not much of a popular base and seem believed like most everyone else that the Syrian people was not ready.
Having said that, the more the regime bungles the response to these demonstrations with more violence and deaths the more violent the response and the more protracted the conflict will be, allowing opportunistic groups with specific agendas come in and sow discord.
This lack of credible information puts the Syrian public in a tough spot and given the sectarian sensitivities, makes them more susceptible to sectarian fear mongering on the part of the regime. Although there is little doubt that some opposing the regime have sectarian agendas, the vast majority do not. And as to the uprising being the work of other meddling countries, there is absolutely no proof that I can see. Neither the start of the trouble in Daraa nor any subsequent demonstration seemed to be other that hastily organized and largely leaderless protests. The organized opposition groups seemed to have little clout, not much of a popular base and seem believed like most everyone else that the Syrian people was not ready.
Having said that, the more the regime bungles the response to these demonstrations with more violence and deaths the more violent the response and the more protracted the conflict will be, allowing opportunistic groups with specific agendas come in and sow discord.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Syrian Government's Proposed Reforms:Talk is Cheap
The Syrian regime had an epiphany after massacring dozens of it own citizens in Daraa: keep it up and you may not be around too much longer. So, grudgingly, Bouthaina Shaaban is trotted out to declare sweeping reforms! maybe... or maybe they will just consider thinking about thinking about reforms. She admits that perhaps the people of Daraa have legitimate grievances but then goes on to immediately delegitimize them by saying that the demonstrations are the work of foreigners trying to destabilize Syria. I guess no one in the regime watches the satellite channels. Don't they realize that every other Arab autocrat in trouble has trotted out the same lame excuse and no one believed them?
There is a distinct smell of insincerity about the whole thing. Why was it Shaaban who offered these concessions? Why not the president? Why are some of the offers of reform so ambivalent? Is this just a stalling tactic to buy time and let the passions simmer down? I remain skeptical. This regime has had absolute power for two generations, imposing its will on the people and tolerating absolutely no dissent. This is their modus operandi, they know no other way of doing things.
There has been enough bloodshed already. Talk is cheap; if the regime does not start implementing its declared reform agenda, it will loose the last shred of legitimacy it still has.
There is a distinct smell of insincerity about the whole thing. Why was it Shaaban who offered these concessions? Why not the president? Why are some of the offers of reform so ambivalent? Is this just a stalling tactic to buy time and let the passions simmer down? I remain skeptical. This regime has had absolute power for two generations, imposing its will on the people and tolerating absolutely no dissent. This is their modus operandi, they know no other way of doing things.
There has been enough bloodshed already. Talk is cheap; if the regime does not start implementing its declared reform agenda, it will loose the last shred of legitimacy it still has.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
What the Chattering Class is Saying about the Demonstrations in Syria
A good place to gauge the mood of Syria's internet chattering class is the comment sections of Joshua Landis' postings on Syria Comment. The chattering class is jittery, and for good reason. Everyone was unanimous about the fear of a descent into violence and chaos, myself included.
This jitteriness seems to have also affected the reasoned judgement of many. It has also brought to the surface the biases and paranoia of the commentators, clearly colored by each person's sectarian and class affiliation. Conspiracies abound. A KSA-US-Beirut conspiracy to destabilize Syria is mentioned. Beirut? with Lebanon politically dominated by Hizballah, does anyone seriously believe that the emasculated March 14th movement is capable of inciting rebellion in Syria? Wahhabi plots are also raised as a cause of unrest by several commentators although no one has yet raised the possibility of hallucinogenic drugs being involved! The Daraa demonstrations were attributed to a tribe in the region with Wahhabi tendencies not the arrest of fifteen schoolboys for scribbling anti government graffiti, inspired by the images they saw of the Egyptian demonstrations. It is ironic that some of the obsessions with Wahhabis sound very much like the stuff spouted regularly by fear-mongering right-wing American neocons.
Many of the comments seem to uncover sensitive sectarian and class divides. Officially, we all get along in Syria, and officially, it is all because of the president's stewardship. Unofficially, we do, for the most part get along, certainly much better than our neighbors to the East and to the West; not because of the president's stewardship but because of the generally tolerant predisposition of Syrians. This does not mean that there are no sectarian sensitivities or concerns and airing such concerns without prejudice or demonization of other groups is a good thing in the long run .
There certainly is at least a grain of truth in most of the fears expressed, but many are wildly exaggerated at the expense of de-legitimizing the real grievances of ordinary Syrian citizens. What the demonstrators want here is what other demonstrators in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya and Bahrain are asking for. Most of the commentators, recognize the latter grievances and yet seem to want to hang on to the status quo because they cannot see a clear road to an orderly transition. This is largely because there are no institutions independent of the president capable of assuring an orderly transition. This is not the fault of the Syrian people, it is the fault of a regime that has not, despite being in power for a decade, made the major reforms needed to allow for the evolution from a top-down, locked-down authoritarian government to a open, representative government. Instead of giving KSA tacit approval for sending troops to Bahrain, the president should be talking to the Egyptians and Tunisians.
This jitteriness seems to have also affected the reasoned judgement of many. It has also brought to the surface the biases and paranoia of the commentators, clearly colored by each person's sectarian and class affiliation. Conspiracies abound. A KSA-US-Beirut conspiracy to destabilize Syria is mentioned. Beirut? with Lebanon politically dominated by Hizballah, does anyone seriously believe that the emasculated March 14th movement is capable of inciting rebellion in Syria? Wahhabi plots are also raised as a cause of unrest by several commentators although no one has yet raised the possibility of hallucinogenic drugs being involved! The Daraa demonstrations were attributed to a tribe in the region with Wahhabi tendencies not the arrest of fifteen schoolboys for scribbling anti government graffiti, inspired by the images they saw of the Egyptian demonstrations. It is ironic that some of the obsessions with Wahhabis sound very much like the stuff spouted regularly by fear-mongering right-wing American neocons.
Many of the comments seem to uncover sensitive sectarian and class divides. Officially, we all get along in Syria, and officially, it is all because of the president's stewardship. Unofficially, we do, for the most part get along, certainly much better than our neighbors to the East and to the West; not because of the president's stewardship but because of the generally tolerant predisposition of Syrians. This does not mean that there are no sectarian sensitivities or concerns and airing such concerns without prejudice or demonization of other groups is a good thing in the long run .
There certainly is at least a grain of truth in most of the fears expressed, but many are wildly exaggerated at the expense of de-legitimizing the real grievances of ordinary Syrian citizens. What the demonstrators want here is what other demonstrators in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya and Bahrain are asking for. Most of the commentators, recognize the latter grievances and yet seem to want to hang on to the status quo because they cannot see a clear road to an orderly transition. This is largely because there are no institutions independent of the president capable of assuring an orderly transition. This is not the fault of the Syrian people, it is the fault of a regime that has not, despite being in power for a decade, made the major reforms needed to allow for the evolution from a top-down, locked-down authoritarian government to a open, representative government. Instead of giving KSA tacit approval for sending troops to Bahrain, the president should be talking to the Egyptians and Tunisians.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Syria: The Genie is out of the Bottle?
As I reflect on the events in Syria today, I remember Bashar Assad's confident, if not smug, answers during the Wall Street Journal interview at the time of Mubarak's fall. He did not hide his pleasure at the fall of Mubarak and with him the Camp David accord. He himself, however, was untouchable, he implied, because he listens to his people and backs the "resistance". The various regime apologists later chimed in saying pretty much the thing: it will not happen in Syria. Well, it has and the brutal push back against the demonstrations in Yemen, Libya and Bahrain has not dampened the resolve of those seeking change.
Over the last three months, it has become perfectly clear for all to see that the autocratic rulers of the Arab world are all cut of the same cloth. Whether they are American lackeys or chest thumping members of the "resistance", they view their people with the same jaundiced eye and treat them with utter disdain. The way they respond to demonstrations in the various countries might make you think that they are using the same playbook. At the first sign of trouble, they bring out the riot police force, but also bring out the plain clothed goons to do the dirty work. When people get hurt and killed, send the security forces to the hospitals to further intimidate the demonstrators and control the information coming out into the media. Of course, always blame outside agitators and infiltrators and ominously warn of chaos and disaster should they loose their grip on power.
The killing of demonstrators in Daraa today is a turning point for Syria. If the regime retrenches and responds with more massive force to further demonstration -as I suspect it will, since it is the only way they know how to respond- I fear that Syria might descend onto a dangerous path. What I would wish for is a major public intervention on the part of the president to calm fears, the implementation of immediate reforms starting with lifting press and Internet censorship and the laying out of a serious and sincere plan for real reform. Unfortunately, I am not hopeful anything that positive will ever occur.
In the end, the present regime, has no one but itself to blame. In the decade since Bashar Assad has come to power, other than some economic reforms that have mostly benefited the rich; there has not been any improvement in individual citizen's liberties and rights. Had that been started a decade ago, the choices for Syria may not be as stark as they are now.
Over the last three months, it has become perfectly clear for all to see that the autocratic rulers of the Arab world are all cut of the same cloth. Whether they are American lackeys or chest thumping members of the "resistance", they view their people with the same jaundiced eye and treat them with utter disdain. The way they respond to demonstrations in the various countries might make you think that they are using the same playbook. At the first sign of trouble, they bring out the riot police force, but also bring out the plain clothed goons to do the dirty work. When people get hurt and killed, send the security forces to the hospitals to further intimidate the demonstrators and control the information coming out into the media. Of course, always blame outside agitators and infiltrators and ominously warn of chaos and disaster should they loose their grip on power.
The killing of demonstrators in Daraa today is a turning point for Syria. If the regime retrenches and responds with more massive force to further demonstration -as I suspect it will, since it is the only way they know how to respond- I fear that Syria might descend onto a dangerous path. What I would wish for is a major public intervention on the part of the president to calm fears, the implementation of immediate reforms starting with lifting press and Internet censorship and the laying out of a serious and sincere plan for real reform. Unfortunately, I am not hopeful anything that positive will ever occur.
In the end, the present regime, has no one but itself to blame. In the decade since Bashar Assad has come to power, other than some economic reforms that have mostly benefited the rich; there has not been any improvement in individual citizen's liberties and rights. Had that been started a decade ago, the choices for Syria may not be as stark as they are now.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Syria and the Arab Revolt: The Clock is Ticking
After the Tunisian uprising, we were told that this was an anomaly. After Egypt, they said that it is unlikely to go further because every country in the Middle East has a different history and circumstance. After Bahrain, Yemen, Algeria, Libya and Oman, the pundits were left scratching their heads. There is no pattern to this spreading revolt and thus no predictability. No one is immune. The only thing that seems to be certain now is that the Arab people no longer fear their rulers.
The short term outcome of the revolts will certainly differ from country to country and will be largely dictated by the rulers. Autocrats, especially those in power for decades, become alarmingly detached from reality and start believing the propaganda that they spew. The false narrative on which their power structure is built becomes their alternative, delusional reality reinforced by the yes men that further insulate them from their people. They are all invariably shocked, horrified at the intensity of the anger that their people manifest. All blame outside forces, fellow Arabs, the media, Zionists or -every one's bogeyman- the Islamists. Ghaddafi outdid everyone, as only he can, by claiming that the protesters were given hallucinogenic drugs. The reflexive response is deadly force as they know no other way of dealing with dissent. Some will eventually back off once reality pops their delusional bubble, they are talked down from an unsustainable position by more realistic advisers or they are pushed aside. However, when, as in Libya, the delusion is a self-reinforcing family affair, the result is the unfolding tragedy we are now witnessing.
Where the Syrian regime falls within the spectrum of delusional autocratic regimes is a source of my concern. While Bashar Assad publicly recognized the need for change, there have been no palpable moves in talking about or implementing reforms and the security forces seem to have been in heightened clamp-down mode. A recent article featuring Asma al-Assad in the March issue of Vogue left me a little disconcerted. As always, Asma comes across as a vibrant, smart advocate of the Syrian people and the first couple appears down to earth and sincere. They also seem to make a conscious effort in showing the reporter that, despite living in a "rough neighborhood", they preside over a secure and diverse country with no sectarian strife. The not so subliminal message is that we know how to make our citizens get along and if it was not for us, it will be an Islamist hell. Here again is the autocrat's narrative - almost identical to that of Mubarak- on which power is built.
To be clear, I don't a Tahrir, Pearl or Green square showdown in Damascus. I don't want the blood of a single Syrian citizen spilled and would rather have an orderly evolution of the Syrian government rather than a revolution. But the wave of anger is moving fast and unpredictably.There is a need for the Syrian regime to make bold and decisive moves towards a more democratic and transparent process of government. Lifting the state of emergency, as Algeria recently did, would be a welcome first step and should be followed by a program of reform attached to a timetable.
The time to act is now; there is little time to waste.
The short term outcome of the revolts will certainly differ from country to country and will be largely dictated by the rulers. Autocrats, especially those in power for decades, become alarmingly detached from reality and start believing the propaganda that they spew. The false narrative on which their power structure is built becomes their alternative, delusional reality reinforced by the yes men that further insulate them from their people. They are all invariably shocked, horrified at the intensity of the anger that their people manifest. All blame outside forces, fellow Arabs, the media, Zionists or -every one's bogeyman- the Islamists. Ghaddafi outdid everyone, as only he can, by claiming that the protesters were given hallucinogenic drugs. The reflexive response is deadly force as they know no other way of dealing with dissent. Some will eventually back off once reality pops their delusional bubble, they are talked down from an unsustainable position by more realistic advisers or they are pushed aside. However, when, as in Libya, the delusion is a self-reinforcing family affair, the result is the unfolding tragedy we are now witnessing.
Where the Syrian regime falls within the spectrum of delusional autocratic regimes is a source of my concern. While Bashar Assad publicly recognized the need for change, there have been no palpable moves in talking about or implementing reforms and the security forces seem to have been in heightened clamp-down mode. A recent article featuring Asma al-Assad in the March issue of Vogue left me a little disconcerted. As always, Asma comes across as a vibrant, smart advocate of the Syrian people and the first couple appears down to earth and sincere. They also seem to make a conscious effort in showing the reporter that, despite living in a "rough neighborhood", they preside over a secure and diverse country with no sectarian strife. The not so subliminal message is that we know how to make our citizens get along and if it was not for us, it will be an Islamist hell. Here again is the autocrat's narrative - almost identical to that of Mubarak- on which power is built.
To be clear, I don't a Tahrir, Pearl or Green square showdown in Damascus. I don't want the blood of a single Syrian citizen spilled and would rather have an orderly evolution of the Syrian government rather than a revolution. But the wave of anger is moving fast and unpredictably.There is a need for the Syrian regime to make bold and decisive moves towards a more democratic and transparent process of government. Lifting the state of emergency, as Algeria recently did, would be a welcome first step and should be followed by a program of reform attached to a timetable.
The time to act is now; there is little time to waste.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Voice of Freedom هاني عادل : صوت الحرية
An uplifting music video about Tahrir square, a respite from the obscene images coming out of Bahrain as yet another Arab government demonstrates just how cheaply they value the lives of their citizens.
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