Many people who care about Lebanon, were collectively holding their breath over the last several weeks expecting trouble. The political jockeying was reaching a climax and it was unclear if this maneuvering would break down into violence. Little did I suspect, though, that the trouble will come in the form of resumption of political assassinations. The story and the pictures are nauseatingly familiar. I knew little of Gemayel or his politics but that is beside the point. I have little sympathy for the Lebanese Forces of old but I will not saddle Pierre Gemayel with the sins of his predecessors. As far as I am concerned he is a Lebanese politician, part of legitimate and democratically elected government –warts and all- who was trying to serve his country. He was also, sadly, a young man at 34 and a new father at that.
Logic would dictate that the assassins are either directly or indirectly connected to the Syrian government. There is, however, at this point proof of that despite the certainty with which many pundits and bloggers are pointing fingers. I could say that we ought to wait for the evidence but we know from past experience that such investigations in Lebanon rarely yield much. Of the hundreds (thousands?) of political assassination in Lebanon over the past 30 years, only a handful have ever been solved. But beyond the personal tragedy though, the big question is what next?
If this assassination was meant to intimidate the Sanioura government and the March 14 group, it may backfire. It was popular outrage at the wanton destruction caused by the Israeli military machine this summer and Hizbullah’s response to it that catapulted the party into its present position of power. Ironically it may be popular outrage at the murder and Hizbullah’s close ties with the prime suspect that may suddenly change Hizbullah’s fortunes. The measured, yet arrogant rhetoric of Hizbullah over the past few days reflected the party’s sense that their day had come. They will have to tone it down in light of the present assassination or risk being associated with the culprits.
The size of the turnout at Gemayel’s funeral on Thursday will be a measure of whether popular outrage outweighs popular fears and sense of desperation. Additionally the next few days will also test the Lebanese people’s political maturity by their ability to resist attempts at inciting civil strife.
I, for one, am hopeful. Can one afford to be otherwise?
1 comment:
Rightly or wrongly, most people in Lebanon have made up their mind as who killed Gemayel.. The truth does seem to matter any more..
Like you, I know very little about the man or his policies, and like you, I deplore his death, and any unncessary death..
However, I am not so sure about the 'logic' linking the murder to Syria.. I, as all who know me realize, am no fan of the Syrian Regime, but I put it to you that there are many other parties who have far more of an interest in rocking the Lebanese boat..
In fact, as you point out yourself, the likely effects of this crime will adversely affect Syria's position, and benefit its enemies, whoever they are.. Stupid as the Regime might be, I doubt it would have been blind to that potential outcome.. and as you say, the evidence.. the proof.. the smoking gun.. is clearly missing..
I too hope and pray that, somehow, Lebanon can step back from the abyss..
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