I never trusted the intentions of Hizbullah and their allies. How can you when they have at their disposal, should politics fail, a standing army more powerful than the country's armed forces. Yet, I was willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. I supported their right to object to the policies of the standing government and to do so peacefully but what happened in the last two days was thuggish intimidation pure and simple. Organizing massive a blockade of all roads with mounds of dirt and flaming tires, the wanton destruction and burning of cars and the forceful prevention of people from reaching their work or the airport is not peaceful protest. The message was clear:" we have played nice so far, but this is what can happen when the gloves come off!"
Yet even now as the violence escalates out of control, Nasrallah is talking from both sides of his mouth. On the one hand he issues a fatwa to have his followers get off the streets and respect the Army and the security forces. On the other, he arrogantly says that he has the power and the guns to topple the government, but he will refrain from doing so - for now. If this is not a violent threat, I don't know what is.
Among the supporters of the opposition are Lebanese -Christians and Shia- who feel disenfranchised both economically and politically. They have real grievances and object to the course in which their country's developement was set in the 90s, a course that has resulted in a shrinking middle class and an ever widening gap between rich and poor. However, their leaders, Nasrallah and Aoun, while giving lip service to the grievances of their consituency, are only interested in one thing, power.
The images of the past two days are disturbingly familiar to anyone who remembers Beirut in 1975. Nasrallah admitted that he overplayed his hand with the Israelis last Summer, he is doing it again, this time with his own compatriots. If Lebanon descends yet again into the abyss of civil war, Nasrallah bears full responsiblity.
8 comments:
The Israelis think it is only a matter of time before the government in Lebanon is brought down. They usually have an inside track through their contacts and agents in Lebanon.
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=3760
Nasrallah is a good strategist and executes his plans (good or evil) with extreme care and patience. His end game is to gain the power of veto in government. The first thing he will veto is the Hariri international tribunal brining any one to trial. Next he will turn Lebanon into an Iranian province. But Syria is now calling for a national unity government so it can look good diplomatically and Nasrallah does not jeopardise the transfer of the US$ billions pledged in Davos.
pretty good analysis. The problem now, on a strategic level, is that we don't know how far the Iranian funders and backers of Hizbulla will go to accomodate the needs of the Syrian regime vis a vis the tribunal. Eventually, HA is an important card for Iran and I wonder if they are ready to burn it just yet.
THey are aware of western support to their march 14 opponents and know that in case things escalate into a civil war, they will not be able to win (on the long run).
On the other hand i don't think the Syrian regime cares about the long run... hence the question about how far the Iranians will HA go.
By the way, feel free to drop by my blog and if you like it and would like to exchange blog links please leave a comment at one of my posts.
With all due respect to your views Abu Kareem, but remember that Nasserullah is after all the 'cleanest' and the most honest among all other Lebanese leaders. He's the only who doesn't have Lebanese blood on his hands.
Look on the other side of the fence and you would find, Ga'ga' and Gimayel; the respective leaders of the LF and the Phalanges. The LF were literally bullying the supporters of General Aoun in the recent couple of days. Needless to mention the role of the Phalanges in the Sabra and Shatila massacres.
I am not a political person myself and it disturbs me alot to watch what's going on in Lebanon, politics are simply a dirty game. And if a civil war is to erupt again in Lebanon (GOD FORBIDS) ....they are all to blame for it. It's utterly unfair to blame it on Nasserullah alone.
Dubai Jazz,
Thank you for your comment. I agree that there are several March 14th politicians with very checkered histories. However, they are now working from within the rules and regulations of the state. Nasrallah is not an elected or appointed politician and has his own army and his men act like they the government in areas they control. This is an untenable situation. You either a state with law and order or you have anarchy. Cleanest hands or not, Nasrallah's "mistake" (by his own admission)last Summer cost Lebanon dearly in lost lives and property. If Nasrallah wants to influence the politics of the country, let him run for office and work to change Lebanon for the better.
Dubai Jazz,
Here are comments I just came across that basically say the same thing that I am (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp? edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=79024). It is from Sheikh Sobhi Tufeili, and ex-Hizbullah leader who split from the movement eight years ago.
Abu Kareem, I again stress that I respect your point of view, and defend your right to express your opinion, although I might disagree with you.
Yes, the existence of Hezbollah indicates a state of anarchy, however: did Hezbollah create the anarchy or is it the opposite?
I am not trying to vindicate Hezbollah, I don't work for them, I am just trying to be fair to a man who's (IMHO) proved honesty and integrity...Nasurllah
Thanks alot for accommodating my disagreement...
Fares;
طول بالك با زلمة, شو جاب المحشي عالعدس بحامض؟ مين قلك اني انا بدي أرجع الحرب الأهلية؟ و شو جاب حلب و حماة عالموضوع؟
if you are really contending to defend human rights and call for the release of Mr. Kilo, you should start by yourself then: try to accept a disagreeing point of view, that's the essence of democracy.
Thanks
Dubai Jazz,
You are always welcome to comment here whether you agree with me or not. That's the whole point of having a open blog. If not, I would be condemned to only talk to people like Fares, whom I almost always agree with. That would get boring after a while!!! (LOL)
Nice to see you back and active Fares.
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