Syria and the Arab Revolt: The Clock is Ticking

After the Tunisian uprising, we were told that this was an anomaly.  After Egypt, they said that it is unlikely to go further because every country in the Middle East has a different history and circumstance.  After Bahrain, Yemen, Algeria, Libya and Oman, the pundits were left scratching their heads.  There is no pattern to this spreading revolt and thus no predictability. No one is immune. The only thing that seems to be certain now is that the Arab people no longer fear their rulers.

The short term outcome of the revolts will certainly differ from country to country and will  be largely dictated by the rulers.  Autocrats, especially those in power for decades, become alarmingly detached from reality and start believing the propaganda that they spew.  The false narrative on which their power structure is built becomes their alternative, delusional reality reinforced by the yes men that further insulate them from their people.  They are all invariably shocked, horrified at the intensity of the anger that their people manifest.  All blame outside forces, fellow Arabs, the media, Zionists or -every one's bogeyman- the Islamists.  Ghaddafi outdid everyone, as only he can, by claiming that the protesters were given hallucinogenic drugs. The reflexive response is deadly force as they know no other way of dealing with dissent. Some will eventually back off once reality pops their delusional bubble, they are talked down from an unsustainable position by more realistic advisers or they are pushed aside.  However, when, as in Libya, the delusion is a self-reinforcing family affair, the result is the unfolding tragedy we are now witnessing.

Where the Syrian regime falls within the spectrum of delusional autocratic regimes is a source of my concern.  While Bashar Assad publicly recognized the need for change, there have been no palpable moves in talking about or implementing reforms and the security forces seem to have been in heightened clamp-down mode.  A recent article featuring Asma al-Assad in the March issue of Vogue left me a little disconcerted. As always, Asma comes across as a vibrant, smart advocate of the Syrian people and the first couple appears down to earth and sincere. They also seem to make a conscious effort in showing the reporter that, despite living in a "rough neighborhood", they preside over a secure and diverse country with no sectarian strife.  The not so subliminal message is that we know how to make our citizens get along and if it was not for us, it will be an Islamist hell.  Here again is the autocrat's narrative - almost identical to that of Mubarak- on which power is built. 

To be clear, I don't a Tahrir, Pearl or Green square showdown in Damascus.  I don't want the blood of a single Syrian citizen spilled  and  would rather have an orderly evolution of the Syrian government rather than a revolution.   But the wave of anger is moving fast and unpredictably.There is a need for the Syrian regime to make bold and decisive moves towards a more democratic and transparent process of government.  Lifting the state of emergency, as Algeria recently did, would be a welcome first step and should be followed by  a program of reform attached to a timetable. 

The time to act is now; there is little time to waste.