Bashar in the Steps of Hafez

If there is any more doubt that the 2012 Assad regime is any different than the Assad regime circa 1982, the carnage in Homs today should erase all such doubts. Reports speak of up to  200 dead and 400 wounded in a single day. The timing of this escalation, a day after the 30th anniversary of the Hama massacre, makes you wonder about the mindset of those in power in Damascus: Are they insane or are they just evil beyond belief? When you listen to Al Jaafari at the UN, you get the sense that these people have so completely absorbed their delusional narrative that all they can do is respond with self-righteous indignation to anyone who opposes their world view.  When it comes to pure fanaticism, Al Qaeda, the regime's favorite boogeyman, has nothing on them. This self-righteousness begets the demagoguery that justifies any form of violence against their perceived enemies.  In its blind rage, the regime will not only destroy all that is in its path, it will invariably self-destruct.  The opposition is right, there is no room for a political solution with the regime in power, there never was.

And yet, Syria and the Syrian people cannot afford to sit and wait patiently for the regime's eventual implosion.  I was and still am a believer in the non-violent approach that formed the basis of the Syrian revolution.  However, the success of a non-violent approach is predicated on undermining the regime by getting the vast majority of the population on your side.  This is happening too slowly as a sizable portion of the population  remains silent either out of fear or self interest.  Then there are the true believers who have taken to heart the regime narrative and will continue, like lemmings,walking with them until they fall off the cliff.

With the regime's heels dug in, regime change will be costly to the Syrian people. I see little chance that the regime will respond favorably to any initiative either by the Arab League or the UN, unless they are strong-armed into it by the Russians. Even if that happens the regime will do its best to drag, delay and render the process completely useless all the while continuing its crackdown.  A slowly growing insurgency is not a good solution either. With piecemeal defections, the fragmented Free Syrian Army defectors will  achieve small victories but will ultimately be outgunned by an Army that has no qualms about sparing civilians when returning fire; that's Bashar's "iron fist" policy.  The increasing violence and retaliation will drag on ultimately creating an environment conducive to civil war.  The only chance of a quicker fall of the regime would be a revolt from within the ranks. I hope, for the sake of sparing as many lives as possible, that any person or group capable of pulling this off is offered the proper incentives to execute such a coup.

Sign: "Kill us but spare the people of Hama and Homs"