Ceasefire! Now What?

So what awaits Lebanon on Monday August 14th- provided the ceasefire holds? Plenty of headaches for sure. The immediate problems are the visible consequences of the war: the injured, the displaced, the homeless, broken bridges, roads and power plants. These are tangible problems with, for the most part, straightforward solutions provided there are resources to alleviate them.

Then there are the less visible though more serious consequences of the war: the effect of the war on the Lebanese psyche, the reaction of the Shia as a community singled out for punishment by Israel, Hizbollah's post-conflict standing, possible political retribution and the real potential of inter-sectarian conflict. Michael Young, The Daily Star editor, has an incisive butf pessimistic, analysis of the situation in today's New York Times Magazine. Although the article focuses on Hezbollah, he details the political machinations in Lebanon from the murder of Hariri to July 12, 2006. It is of interest that here he derides Lebanon's dysfunctional confessional democracy which failed the "Cedar revolution" after he had praised it in a previous opinion piece in The Daily Star over the past year. What the net result will be for Lebanon internally is unclear. Much depends on Hizbollah's intentions and the deftness with which the Sanioura government navigates this political minefield.

There are of course the non-Lebanese players to contend with. Will Syria and Iran's influence grow or wane in Lebanon? Will Bush use Lebanon as a stepping stone for furthering "New Middle East" plans? Then there is Israel with 30,000 troops crammed into the South in the last 48hrs is likely staying for a while with all the resulting complications this occupation will bring.

Anyone who thinks they know where Lebanon will be in three, six or twenty four months is a self deluding fool. So I will not venture to even guess.

One thing I do know is that there needs to be a genuine Lebanese solution to this Lebanese problem. It sounds self evident but in fact in the thirty years since the civil war first erupted, there has never been a purely Lebanese solution to any of the crises that the country endured. After the end of the war in 1990, public discussion of the civil war was taboo. There was no accounting of what happened, no lessons learned, no reconciliation just collective amnesia. To succeed, the Lebanese should resist continuing to play the duel role of innocent victim and willing pawn to outside forces. It is a tall order given the pressures from outside. However, having been burnt from all sides, perhaps the Lebanese will realize that their only chance of survival as a viable country is to try to make decisions independently and for the benefit of all of Lebanon and not along narrow sectarian interests or to the benefit of foreign overlords.