Missing in Action: The Syrian Opposition

In his June 4th Syria Comment post Joshua Landis says that with the results of the presidential plebiscite,Bashar has now consolidated his power and established his legitimacy among the Syrian elite. There is more than a little bit of "I told you so" glee in the tone of his post as he appears to figuratively thumb his nose at his many detractors. Landis, to his many critics, was a Syrian regime apologist, a characterization that I found too simple-minded. While I found some of his analysis to be unpalatable relative to my political convictions it did not necessarily mean that he was wrong. I am afraid that this applies to the June 4th post. Although I did not particularly like the conclusions he arrived at, I believe that he was largely correct in his assessment of Bashar's current position and here is why:

• Bashar has weathered American political pressure which seems to have suddenly eased (but what did he give in return?)
• Internal Syrian opposition has been silenced -imprisoned- with little real protest from the international community.
• He continues to to exert influence in Lebanon through his Hizbullah ally (and perhaps through other means) despite the forced withdrawal of the Syrian army.
• He has played the two sides of the Sunni-Shia divide. He is simultaneously the spearhead of Iranian influence in the Arab world through Hizbullah all the while convincing the Saudis and Gulf Arabs, that, for a price, Syria could act as the gate at which Iranian-Shia influence can be contained.
• He has burnished his Arab nationalist credentials with his support of Hamas and Hizbullah in their fight against Israel.
• The American economic boycott has not worked. Instead excess oil revenue cash from the Gulf has made its way to Syria keeping the Damascene merchant class happy.
• The Syrian external opposition, riding the wave of international indignation after the Hariri assassination have become much less vocal and visible. Early on, we heard repeatedly of imminent changes in Syria but nothing has materialized. It is telling that one of the most vocal critics of Bashar, at least on this side of the Atlantic, Ammar Abdulhamid has left the NSF and opposition politics to concentrate on his work with the Tharwa project.

Could it be that Bashar, this soft spoken, but rather dull-appearing man, is as wily and shrewd a politician as his father or is it just dumb luck? Whichever it is, I have to agree with Landis that Bashar el Assad has come for now come out on top. Now fortunes may turn quickly with events seeming to unfold unpredictably and at a dizzying pace in the current Middle East. The Hariri tribunal stills castes a long shadow on the Syrian regime and the recent thuggish behavior of Hamas militants towards fellow Palestinians may make them a liability rather an asset to the regime.

So how did he pull it off? Externally, the Syrian regime has continued a long tradition of playing the role of the indispensable spoiler that no one likes but whose cooperation everyone seeks. Perhaps more important for the survival of the regime is that the Syrian people though ready for change and reform was not ready for a radical and potentially violent change.The mantra of "security and stability” (al-amn wal-istiqrar) was not just an empty slogan hammered into the heads of the citizenry on every state-controlled media outlet, it was a mantra that most citizens believed in. How could they feel otherwise with the surrounding states seemingly coming apart at the seams and a million Iraqi refugees streaming into the country? The choices were stark: peace versus chaos. So while the expatriate opposition community railed loudly -and rightfully- about the misdeeds of the regime, the average Syrian citizen could not afford to be as sanguine.

It is a depressing prospect that Syria might be in for another generation of an Assad-ruled mukhabartocracy. Early on, supporters of Bashar claimed that he meant what he said about reform but that he was hamstrung by the power yielded by his father's old guard. If his supporters are right and Landis is right about his consolidation of power then are we in for a pleasant surprise in the coming months? He would do well by first releasing the human rights activists from prison. Although I am an eternal optimist, I will not be holding my breath waiting for a hereditary Baathist to change his colors.